Projects

North Fork Forest Recovery Project April-June 2024

The Plumas National Forest in Northern California reached out regarding a new NEPA (National Environmental Planning Act) requirement taking effect in 2024. The proposed project is a very large (>100,000 acre) forest restoration project, aiming to rehabilitate a portion of the forest which was destroyed by the Dixie Fire in 2021. Starting in 2024, NEPA requires a Climate Report, which is a full specialist report roughly 20-50 pages in length analyzing the impacts of climate change on the project, and the greenhouse gas emissions resulting from the proposed actions. Because this report was a new addition, minimal existing literature existed, and no past projects could be used to inform the analysis. As a result, I was chosen to complete this report, the first of its kind in this region, which would also serve as the template for future analyses.

This new analysis poses many challenges, as it requires calculations which are difficult even with cutting-edge climate science methods. The climate resilience analysis requires sophisticated climate modeling at higher resolution than climate models typically provide. Additionally, there is disagreement between different climate models, requiring an expert analysis of the various climate models to determine the most accurate estimates. For this project, the primary factor was aridification, which posed a major threat to forest health and required a definitive analysis to determine the suitability of this proposed action. Ultimately, this was resolved through a combination of rigorous climate modeling and application of theoretical atmospheric science.

The greenhouse gas accounting presented a similar challenge, as the requirement to calculate emissions resulting from a >100,000 acre project across a varied landscape was not possible with tools typically used for such analyses. To resolve this issue, I used multiple forest carbon storage models and cross-referenced the results. The resulting range of possible carbon storage was very large, as should be expected for something as uncertain as forest restoration, but was sufficient to meet the stringent requirements of the new NEPA climate analysis.

This analysis presented multiple challenges spanning a range of disciplines, but ultimately succeeded in both meeting the regulatory requirements and providing a template for future NEPA Climate Reports. To see the Climate Report click here

See the Services section for information about my consulting services, including NEPA Climate Reports, climate adaptation analyses, and more specific solutions. For pricing and availability, reach out at daniel.baldassare (at) utah.edu